TRUMP Token Sinks After Former U.S. President Is Found Guilty in New York
Trump arrives at an NFT dinner in May 2024. (Danny Nelson/CoinDesk)
Polymarket
Ether Surges 17%, Polymarket Approval Chances Rocket as ETF Makes Regulatory Progress
The U.S. SEC has asked exchanges to update 19b-4 filings for ether ETFs ahead of a key deadline, suggesting potential approval progress, though approval is not guaranteed.
U.S. CFTC Proposes Ban on Political Event Contracts
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) proposed a formal rejection of event contracts that bet on the outcome of political activity in a vote on Friday, beginning an effort to wall off U.S. customers from platforms that allow the trading of predictive contracts.
Elon Musk Will Likely Remain Tesla CEO, and Tweet Non-Stop: Prediction Markets
Also: Trump faces likely conviction, per Polymarket punters; CFTC hearing to discuss political betting ban.
Polymarket Odds Say Columbia University President Will Keep Job
Continuing pro-Palestine protests won’t lead to Minouche Shafik having a fate similar to Claudine Gay, who was recently forced to resign as Harvard’s president, the prediction market signals. Plus: Kalshi bettors don’t think Taylor Swift will break her record.
Polymarket Traders See 32% Chance of No Fed Rate Cuts This Year
The hawkish shift in the market sentiment could dampen the demand for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies and technology stocks.
Polymarket Traders See 55% Chance of Second Trump Presidency
(NIPYATA!/Unsplash, modified by CoinDesk)
He Exposed Harvard President’s Plagiarism, Then Lost Money Betting on the Story
Are prediction markets the future of investigative journalism? Maybe, says Chris Brunet, whose reporting led to Claudine Gay’s resignation – though he’s yet to profit from his scoops.
‘Deniers Are Crypto’s Flat Earthers’ as Markets Flash 83% Odds of Bitcoin ETF Approval
The popular Polymarket market bet “Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15?” has attracted almost $1 million in volume from hundreds of users.
Polymarket Traders See 89% Chance of SEC Approving Spot BTC ETF by Jan. 15
Some investors have bought the “No side shares” of the prediction contract to hedge against potential delays in the SEC’s approval of spot ETFs.